12 completely random predictions for 2024
All predictions must come with odds and you must bet.
I invited 12 well-known people over for dinner (who will remain anonymous) and we played a game … each person had to make a prediction for 2024 and the percentage chance they think it will happen. Then the rest of us placed bets (for or against).
Everyone at the dinner was allocated 100 chips and had to bet with for OR against each prediction (max bet was 20 and min bet was 1). As the appointed secretary, I tracked everyone’s bet and will hand out prizes in Jan 2025.
Below is each prediction and the % confidence … along with the average bet (negative means the group generally disagreed — the more negative, the more disagreement).
Economy:
Core Inflation below 3% by the end of 2024 (monthly results in Dec 2024) (65% confidence w avg bet 5.08) … made by well known tech founder.
S&P500 below 4317 at closing of 12/31/2024 (60% confidence w avg bet 4.17) …. made by well-known hedge fund CEO.
Remote work will increase in 2024 over 2023 (days-working-from-home compared to days-working-for-an-office will be up) (65% confidence w avg bet 2.58) … made by senior partner at consulting firm.
Travel down. The Producer Price Index for Hotels and Motels in Sep 2024 will be less than Sep 2023 (171.233) (65% confidence w avg bet 1.75) … made by me.
Sports:
Manchester City wins the premier league (80% confidence w avg bet -1.08) … made by well-known Ambassador to the United States.
Nuggets OR Celtics win the NBA title (70% confidence w avg bet -5.33) … made by economist Tyler Cowen.
Foreign Policy:
US in "formal" hot war with at least 20k troops (20% confidence w avg bet -2.17) … made by exec at defense prime.
No coup (that is U.S. recognized) will happen in Africa in 2024 (80% confidence w avg bet -2.33) … made by tech and music entrepreneur.
Ukraine war ends with some sort of treaty or official cease-fire (50% confidence w avg bet -13.75) … made by well-known tech CEO.
Domestic:
One of Biden OR Trump will not end up running for President in 2024 (30% confidence w avg bet 5.42) … made by private equity exec.
Average age of first-time mother in U.S. will go down in 2024 (was 27.3 for 2021)(60% confidence w avg bet 5.17) … made by top U.S. intelligence official.
Massive failure of U.S. infrastructure (like power going down for a million people for a week) caused by foreign influence or solar flare ... in 2024 (20% confidence w avg bet -1.83) … made by private equity exec.
Given the stated odds, which predictions would you bet in favor of or bet against?
on housekeeping, World of DaaS continues to grow. We started a YouTube channel in 2023 and grew from 300 subscribers in June 2023 to over 7,000 today. had no idea there are over 7,000 data nerds. thank you all for making it possible.
subscribe at: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofdaas
and Five Links (this newsletter) now has over 30,000 subscribers. thank you for being one of them. feel free to forward to a friend: