Crazy bets on 2025 - 12 personal hedge funds predict the year

2025 predictions and recap of 2024 predictions

it is becoming a tradition. Last year, I brought together 12 well-known people to predict the future … and collectively bet on it. Each person made a prediction and gave the odds that prediction would happen … and then everyone around the table bet very valuable BitAurenCoins on the outcome.

each person had to both bet on a direction of the outcome and size the bet to make maximum profit. so each person ran a mini hedge fund betting on the future.

and we did it again for 2025! (scroll down for the predictions)

2024 prediction market results: we are not very good

of the twelve 2024 predictions made, 4 turned out to be true, 6 turned out to be false, and 2 did not have enough data to call.

while all the participants remain anonymous, I will out myself. I was the WORST performer in the 2024 predictions. I came in last place — 12 out of 12. my annualized return to my LPs was a meager -53.37%. I got only 2 bets correct. pretty terrible.

(in my defense, I also entered into the 2024 Prediction Game run by Protege CEO Bobby Samuels and came in 8th out of 296 total players — not too shabby!)

the best performer was a well-known Ambassador to the US — he had a 66.91% return. the second best was a senior partner at a global consulting firm — she had 59.73%. third best was a well-known economist — coming in at 48.23%. my wife, Hallie, came in fourth place with a 28.86% return (so at least one Hoffman made money!!).

collectively, the twelve of us returned just 3.13% -- which is worse than treasuries but probably better than what a group of blind monkeys would do (just barely).

I am determined to reclaim my self-worth and at least have a positive return for 2025!

Onward to the 2025 predictions

Below is each prediction and the % confidence … along with the average bet (negative means the group generally disagreed — the more negative, the more disagreement).

Foreign policy (3 of them about Iran):

• regime change in Iran (no IRGC in charge) (40% confidence with average bet: -2.92): made by MD at global PE firm

• Israel initiates sustained bombing (more than one consecutive day) of Iran nuclear facility (80% confidence with average bet: +6.92): made by well-known tech founder

• Azerbaijan will occupy some Iranian territory on Dec 31 2025 (20% confidence with average bet: -1.17): made by religious leader

• Saudi recognizes Israel AND Houthis no longer controlling Sanaa (60% confidence with Average bet: -11.33): made by former Editor-in-Chief of well-known news organization. almost every participant bet against this one as both predictions have to happen for the bet to pay off.

Economy:

• a "real" company (somewhere in the world) will have an AI CEO (and management team) running the company (10% confidence w Average bet: -2.75): made by CEO of PE-backed company — this was one of the more out there predictions. but the payoff is very big so hard to bet big against it.

• there will be a point in the year where the SP500 will be 15% lower than the previous high for the calendar year (70% confidence with average bet: +5.83): made by fmr President of defense prime

• below 1.2M housing starts (from Dec 2025 estimate) (25% confidence with average bet: -1.67): made by President of PE firm

• 3 of the top 20 food companies will be acquired (40% confidence with average bet: +3.25): made by senior partner at global consulting firm

• Dec 31, 2025 closing BTC price will be above $92.38k (the Dec 31, 2024 closing price) (60% confidence with average bet: +6.92): made by me

Culture:

• NONE of the year's Billboard 50 songs will be marketed as from "AI" (40% confidence with average bet: +1.42): made by tech founder (and also music exec).

• Travis Kelce proposes to Taylor Swift (68% confidence with average bet: +7.17): made by a senior govt national security official. the only reason this bet was not higher is that many people (including me) think Taylor will propose to Kelce.

• NBA Champ will be one of: OKC, Boston, or Cleveland (83% confidence with average bet: -2.17): made by well-known economist

Given the stated odds, which predictions would you bet in favor of or bet against?

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